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ICRP International

Conference on Recovery After Nuclear Accidents

Radiological Protection Lessons
from Fukushima and Beyond

December 1 - 18, 2020

T. Kinugawa, Y. Manabe, T. Wada

Updated: Dec 11, 2020

Study of Radiation Effect on Lifespan with Mathematical Model

T. Kinugawa (Osaka University, Japan), Y. Manabe (Osaka University, Japan), T. Wada (Kansai University, Japan)

We propose a mathematical model which represents the relationship between the occurrence of cancer and death caused by the cancer so as to investigate radiation effect on lifespan. We applied the model to the experimental data of the lifespan and that of the cancer occurrence both of which were obtained from continuous gamma ray irradiation experiments of mice in Institute for Environmental Science, Aomori Prefecture, Japan. The model derives the period between cancer occurrence and death caused by the cancer, by reproducing survival curves by using age dependence of cancer-incidence as an input. We can decompose the life-shortening caused by radiation into two parts: the early onset of cancer and the contraction of the period between cancer occurrence and death. We will contribute to the quantitative assessment of biological effects caused by environmental radiation in Fukushima by developing this study to human.



衣川 哲弘 (阪大学)、真鍋 勇一郎 (阪大学)、和田 隆宏 (関西大学)

 我々は放射線の寿命に対する影響を調べるために、がんの発生とがんによる死亡との関係を表す数理モデルを構築している。我々はこの数理モデルを用いて、青森県にある公益財団法人 環境科学技術研究所で行われた、マウスに対する連続ガンマ線照射実験から得られた寿命とがん発生のデータを解析し、放射線の寿命に対する影響を調査した。



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